Free calculator · Social Security
Social Security benefit cut calculator
The 2026 Trustees Report expects the retirement trust fund to run out late in 2032, leaving enough to pay 78% of benefits. Pick a cut and see what it costs you after tax, and what it would take from your IRA to make up.
Less to spend each year from 2033: $7,590.
Less to spend each year from 2033$7,590Plan withdrawals and Roth conversions together
See how cash, IRA, Roth and brokerage withdrawals cover spending, with federal and state tax.
A 22% cut from 2033 takes $8,448 a year off $38,400 of benefits. Less of what is left is taxable, so federal tax falls $858 and you have $7,590 less to spend. Making that up from a traditional IRA takes $8,622 more a year, because the withdrawal is taxed. From 2033 through your age 90, 18 years, that is $136,620 in today’s dollars.
| One year | Full benefits | 22% cut |
|---|---|---|
| Social Security | $38,400 | $29,952 |
| Taxable Social Security | $32,640 | $25,459 |
| Federal tax | $4,697 | $3,839 |
| All income after federal tax | $93,203 | $85,613 |
Today’s dollars and 2026 federal tax tables: benefits and brackets both rise with inflation, so the comparison holds roughly in later years. State tax is not included. A scenario you set, not a forecast.
Calculations, not tax, legal or investment advice.
When the Social Security trust fund runs out: the 2026 Trustees Report
Social Security pays retirement and survivor benefits from the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund. Under the Trustees’ intermediate assumptions, its reserve runs out in the fourth quarter of 2032. After that, taxes coming in would pay 78% of scheduled benefits, falling gradually to 62% by 2100. That is the 22% cut this calculator starts from, in 2033, the first full year.
Counted together with the disability fund, the reserves last until the third quarter of 2034, and 83% of benefits could be paid then, falling to 65% by 2100. That is the second scenario. Moving money between the two funds takes an act of Congress.
Neither is a forecast of what will happen. Congress can raise taxes, change benefits or both before the reserve runs out. The calculator applies one flat cut from the year you pick and does not model the larger cuts the report projects for later decades.
Method and sources
Your year is computed twice with the 2026 federal tables: once with full benefits, once with the cut. Up to 85% of Social Security is taxable under the IRS worksheet, so a smaller benefit can also mean less taxable income, and that saving is netted against what you lose. The IRA withdrawal is the smallest extra traditional IRA withdrawal that brings income after federal tax back to the full-benefit year, found by recomputing the return to the dollar. The 2026 tables include the extra deduction for people 65 and older that is set to end after 2028, so for a later year the tax figures run a little low.
Amounts are in today’s dollars. The total multiplies one year by the number of years from the first year of the cut through the age you pick; it does not add growth, inflation or the larger later cuts.
Tables and sources
- The 2026 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal OASI and DI Trust FundsII.A Highlights, intermediate assumptions · 2026 · www.ssa.gov
- Rev. Proc. 2025-32§4.01 Tables 1 and 3; §4.14(1) and (3); §4.03 · 2026 · www.irs.gov
- Schedule 1-A (Form 1040), Part V Enhanced Deduction for SeniorsSchedule 1-A Part V; IRC §151(d)(5)(C), effective 2025–2028 · 2026 · www.irs.gov
- IRS Publication 915, Social Security and Equivalent Railroad Retirement BenefitsIRC §86 base amounts; Pub 915 Worksheet 1; not indexed · 2026 · www.irs.gov
- CMS fact sheet: 2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles (2025-11-14)Part B and Part D income-related monthly adjustment amounts; set from MAGI two tax years earlier · 2026 · www.cms.gov
- HHS 2025 Poverty Guidelines (Federal Register 2025-01377); IRS Premium Tax Credit Q&A A72026 coverage uses the 2025 HHS poverty guidelines (48 states + DC); the enhanced credit lapsed after 2025, so eligibility stops above 400% FPL · www.federalregister.gov
Related calculators and guides
- Sequence of returnsYour withdrawals replayed through historical returns, and how much the order of those years matters.
- Social Security break-evenThe monthly benefit at two claim ages and the age the later claim catches up, with a grid for couples.
- Taxable Social SecurityProvisional income against the IRS thresholds, the taxable part of your benefit and the tax torpedo.
- Retirement withdrawal calculatorThis year’s withdrawals from each account, the tax they cause and how close they come to your line.