Free calculator · Sequence of returns
Sequence of returns risk
The same average return can end in very different places depending on when the bad years come while you withdraw. Replay your withdrawals through historical returns.
Historical sequences
Replay the same withdrawals through every 30-year stretch of U.S. stock and bond returns since 1871.
Start years in which every withdrawal was paid: 124 of 126.
Start years in which every withdrawal was paid124 of 126Plan withdrawals and Roth conversions together
See how cash, IRA, Roth and brokerage withdrawals cover spending, with federal and state tax.
Starting in 1965 or 1966, the portfolio could not pay the full $81,600 in 1993: plan year 29 for the 1965 start and 28 for the 1966 start. Every other start year from 1871 to 1996 paid all 30 withdrawals.
| Ending balance across start years | Today’s dollars |
|---|---|
| Lowest | $0 |
| 10th percentile | $1,031,732 |
| Median | $3,091,309 |
| 90th percentile | $9,310,481 |
| Highest | $13,295,150 |
| Start year | Ending balance | First year short |
|---|---|---|
| 1929 | $1,820,792 | none |
| 1937 | $1,144,899 | none |
| 1966 | $0 | 1993 |
| 1973 | $834,594 | none |
| 1982 | $13,295,150 | none |
- Today's dollars: returns are real (after CPI-U inflation) and withdrawals are entered in today's dollars.
- Each plan year the withdrawal is taken at the start of the year, then the rest earns that year's return.
- The portfolio is rebalanced to the entered stock share at the start of every year; no fees and no taxes.
- Past sequences, not a forecast or a probability.
Calculations, not tax, legal or investment advice.
Same returns, reversed order
Enter a run of yearly returns. The same returns are applied in the order entered and in reverse: the average is identical, so any difference in the ending balance comes only from their order while withdrawals are being taken.
Difference from the order of returns alone: $331,821.
Difference from the order of returns alone$331,821Both runs withdraw $571,200 over seven years from the same returns. The order entered leaves $331,821 less at the end than the reverse order.
In the order entered
| Year | Start | Return | End |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $2,100,000 | −20.0% | $1,614,720 |
| 2 | $1,614,720 | −10.0% | $1,379,808 |
| 3 | $1,379,808 | 5.0% | $1,363,118 |
| 4 | $1,363,118 | 8.0% | $1,384,040 |
| 5 | $1,384,040 | 12.0% | $1,458,733 |
| 6 | $1,458,733 | 15.0% | $1,583,703 |
| 7 | $1,583,703 | 20.0% | $1,802,523 |
| Ending balance | $1,802,523 | ||
Reversed
| Year | Start | Return | End |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $2,100,000 | 20.0% | $2,422,080 |
| 2 | $2,422,080 | 15.0% | $2,691,552 |
| 3 | $2,691,552 | 12.0% | $2,923,146 |
| 4 | $2,923,146 | 8.0% | $3,068,870 |
| 5 | $3,068,870 | 5.0% | $3,136,633 |
| 6 | $3,136,633 | −10.0% | $2,749,530 |
| 7 | $2,749,530 | −20.0% | $2,134,344 |
| Ending balance | $2,134,344 | ||
Each year: (start − $81,600 withdrawal) × (1 + that year’s return).
Calculations, not tax, legal or investment advice.
Method and sources
Each year the withdrawal is taken first, then what is left earns that year’s return: balance at year end = (balance − withdrawal) × (1 + return). Historical runs use real (after-inflation) stock and bond total returns derived from Robert Shiller’s published January index levels, 1871 to 2025, mixed at your stock share and rebalanced yearly; no fees and no taxes. Each run starts in a different calendar year and uses the returns that actually followed it. These are past sequences, not a forecast or a probability.
Tables and sources
- Robert J. Shiller, U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present and CAPE Ratio (ie_data.xls)Sheet "Data": column A (Date), column J (Real Total Return Price, S&P Composite), column S (Real Total Bond Returns, 10-year Treasury); January rows · 2026 · shillerdata.com
- Robert Shiller, Online Data (Yale)Links the stock market data set to shillerdata.com; the legacy copy at /~shiller/data/ie_data.xls was last saved in September 2023 · 2026 · www.econ.yale.edu